Written by Alice Jukes

The 2026 MotoGP season has wasted little time announcing itself. Two dramatic, if admittedly chaotic, opening rounds in Buriram and at the returning Brazilian Grand Prix in Goiana have already left fans with more questions than answers as they try to gauge what the remainder of the year may hold. For now, it seems an equally volatile and unpredictable season lies ahead.

That much was foreshadowed in pre-season. As the championship enters the final year of the current regulations, Liberty Media’s takeover of Dorna, Aprilia’s early ascendancy over Ducati, and the approach of an important ‘silly season’ have all contributed to a paddock that feels as though it is shifting beneath our feet. No rider embodied that intrigue more than Toprak Razgatlıoğlu. His long-anticipated arrival in Pramac Yamaha colours would have been one of the stories of the season in any context, but doing so at a time when Yamaha remains mired in difficulty has only made the move more captivating.

The Yamaha Problem

It is no secret that Yamaha has spent copious time trying to refine the V4 engine now running in the YZR-M1, though both pre-season and the opening rounds of 2026 suggest those efforts have so far made little meaningful difference. Two disappointing weekends in Thailand and Brazil appear to be only the beginning of the manufacturer’s struggles, with Fabio Quartararo growing increasingly weary of the bike’s lack of straight-line speed, rear traction and, quite simply, competitiveness.
At the Autódromo Internacional Ayrton Senna, in a weekend already complicated by worsening track conditions and a shortened Grand Prix, Yamaha’s brief flashes of promise quickly faded. Razgatlıoğlu’s direct passage into Q2 (albeit in mixed conditions) and Quartararo’s early sprint pace offered some encouragement, but as the weekend unfolded, both felt more like isolated moments than evidence of sustainable progress. Razgatlıoğlu’s qualifying pace itself was lacklustre, with a lap time that would have placed him second last had he been forced to progress through Q1. He went on to finish the Grand Prix in a lowly 17th, just behind a dejected Quartararo in 16th.

Álex Rins was the leading Yamaha in 14th, collecting two points, while Jack Miller’s race ended with an unfortunate DNF on lap two. On that evidence, another difficult weekend at the United States Grand Prix feels likely. COTA’s demanding, technical layout does little to flatter a bike already struggling for grip, and Razgatlıoğlu’s lack of familiarity with the circuit only adds to the challenge. He has not raced there since his Red Bull Rookies Cup days in 2013, which leaves Yamaha heading to Austin with a great deal to overcome and very little to suggest a meaningful change in fortunes. For now, the outlook for the Japanese factory is bleak.

Acosta Cannot Hide KTM’s Issues

Aside from Yamaha’s difficult start, another major question mark has emerged around the KTM RC16. It comes to the surprise of nobody that Pedro Acosta has, by any measure, been the strongest KTM rider. He left Buriram as championship leader after a contentious sprint win and Grand Prix podium, then remained the leading KTM finisher again in Goiana.

At present, he looks like an outlier extracting results from a bike with increasingly visible weaknesses. Even more concerning is that KTM, once famed for its straight-line speed, recorded the lowest top speed of any manufacturer in Brazil apart from Yamaha. The rest of the picture was hardly encouraging. Maverick Viñales finished last in Brazil, Enea Bastianini managed only 15th, and Brad Binder’s race ended in retirement, while Acosta salvaged seventh. It is still early enough in the season to wonder whether that was an accurate reflection of KTM’s level or a result distorted by difficult conditions, but the broader concern remains. Whatever the precise explanation, the RC16 no longer appears to possess the one defining strength on which it once relied.

Aprilia Have the Momentum

If KTM leave the opening rounds with questions, Aprilia leave them with momentum. The Noale factory has been the standout story of the season so far, particularly on Sundays. Marco Bezzecchi has won both Grands Prix of 2026 to date, extending a run that now includes four victories from the last five Sundays stretching back to the end of 2025. He joins an exclusive list of MotoGP legends to win 4 or more consecutive grand prix’s in the MotoGP era.

Take nothing away from Aprilia teammate and 2024 world champion Jorge Martin, who had a stunning return to the rostrum in Brazil after, what can only be described, as a nightmare 2025 season and pre-season, marred by injury and uncertainty. Ai Ogura had a memorable race, finishing a well-earned 5th in Brazil, edging Gresini Ducati rider Alex Marquez out on the last lap. On the other side of the Trackhouse garage Raul Fernandez brought home a remarkable 3rd place finish in Thailand. It seems Aprilia’s greatest challenge this year will be tempering any fire between factory teammates in the battle for the World Championship more so than pining for performance; a fortunate and surely welcomed position.

Ducati No Longer Inevitable?

It would be absurd to leave Marc Márquez out of any championship conversation. After his emphatic return to the top in 2025, armed with factory Ducati machinery, he entered this season as the obvious benchmark. Yet the opening rounds of 2026 have felt surprisingly subdued. One sprint win and no Grand Prix podiums is hardly a catastrophe, but by Márquez standards, and by Ducati’s, it is an unexpectedly flat beginning.

What makes that more significant is that the GP26 does not, at least for now, appear to be the overwhelming weapon Ducati have enjoyed in recent seasons. That seems especially true in the case of Pecco Bagnaia, whose difficulties from 2025 appear not to have disappeared with the winter break. There is, of course, far too much quality in both rider and machine to write off Ducati after two rounds, and it would be foolish to count Márquez out so early, particularly if he is still feeling the effects of the shoulder injury that ended last season.

Still, for the first time in quite a while, Ducati does not look inevitable. That alone may be the most intriguing development of all.

Signs of Life at Honda

A brief note on Honda would also not go amiss. They may not yet have the outright pace to place themselves firmly among the frontrunners, but unlike Yamaha, Honda do at least seem to be moving in a more coherent direction. There is still a great deal of work to be done before they can be spoken about as genuine contenders again, yet the early signs suggest a manufacturer beginning, however gradually, to pull itself out of the hole it has spent the last few seasons in. In a paddock where some factories have opened 2026 with confusion, Honda’s relative stability may prove more significant than it first appears.

A Season Without Certainties

Taken together, the opening rounds of 2026 have offered a fascinating, if still incomplete, picture of the season ahead. Aprilia looks like the early benchmark, Yamaha already appears in deep trouble, KTM remains difficult to read, Ducati are no longer quite as imposing as they once seemed, and Honda may finally have reason for cautious optimism. Two rounds are far too few from which to draw any definitive conclusions, but they have already done enough to suggest that this season may not belong to the sport’s recent certainties. That, more than anything, is what makes the road to Austin and beyond so compelling.

Written By Alice Jukes

Photography By Joel Cooper